WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN IV

October 4th, 2008

Since the original 110 page Bailout bill couldn't get approved, Congress added 340 pages of tax cuts, tax breaks, regulatory changes and other assorted unrelated items to create the actual bailout bill. But the portion devoted to the bailout remains the same and is summarized here. Implementation has begun though it will take about a month for Treasury to devise auction rules, hire portfolio managers etc. In other important news, Wells Fargo has offered to purchase Wachovia for 15.4 billion. Wachovia had previously agreed to, with FDIC prompting, be sold to Citigroup for substantially less. It begs the question, if things are so bad, why would Wells Fargo pay so much more? The news on the economy was troubling this week as non-farm payrolls declined 159,000 in September. That's a number that indicates a recession. In fact Goldman Sachs is now predicting that the third quarter will show no economic growth at all and that a recession  is likely. Finally, the rates for jumbo mortgages remain elevated and Libor, the rate at which banks lend money overnight to one another remains very high. So what does this all mean for Maui real estate?

 

While it is possible the bailout settles down the credit markets and we see renewed mortgage lending, and indeed, renewed lending in general, it will take time for that to filter down to real estate values everywhere, including Maui. It now seems likely we are in for a protracted period of economic stagnation and job losses nationally.